Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

On the contrary, it is about how Israel is percieved and the lengths the impressive propaganda machinery at its disposal goes to protect it by trying to project a fictitious image about its strength and capabilities. Otherwise, the "authoritarian dictatorship" in Iran has been at the receiving end of genuinely meaningful and successful Israeli operations in the past which it didn't respond to effectively. Its failure to properly hit back at Israel after the assassination of Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was particularly embarrassing. This operation by Israel, on the other hand, is rightly the butt of jokes among anyone in Iran the regime needs to rely on. And a source of embarrassment and disappointment to Israel's "proxies" in Iran.

 

Satellite imagery shows no damage to either the airbase in Isfahan or the S300 battery, but according to the NYT "expert" the fact that no damage can be seen even to the vehicles carrying those batteries proves the "precision" of the strike! lol

If it makes the pro Israeli propaganda machinery happy, Israel really showed Iran its "capability to strike inside Iran." Israel is so advanced its "ballistic missiles" travel invisibly" from the atmosphere into their target. Without anyone seeing anything! And those missiles are so precise, that the damage they do cannot be really seen on satellite imagery.

As for the strike against the PMU facility in Iraq, it seems Israel and the US have both denied being involved! I guess it was the Martians who did it.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...t-behind-strike-on-pro-iran-militias-in-iraq/
Israeli official tells CNN that Israel not behind strike on pro-Iran militias in Iraq

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...s-american-forces-carried-out-attack-in-iraq/
US military formally denies American forces carried out attack in Iraq

 

Well, there's that and a monopoly on violence which it uses against it's people with regularity. Another hallmark of authoritarian dictatorships.

It's completely illegitimate.

 

GeoConfirmed ISR-IRN.

An Iranian 30N6E target engagement radar is destroyed, Isfahan Isfahan Province, Iran.

This is also confirmed by analysis based on high resolution commercial bought satellite imagery (by GeoConfirmed volunteers, that can't be shared due to copyright… https://t.co/Q0nqPOcfXq

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) April 20, 2024

 

I actually gave credence to this notion of some radar being hit initially even though I certainly can't see any damage through anything visible to me. But I was then reminded that no one observed any incoming missiles or anything of the sort. I have concluded the whole thing was a sabotage operation from inside Iran. If this was meant as a message or warning, the whole point was missed by Iran whose military and political leaders are laughing it off as a prank. No one, however, believes the strike in Iraq was a prank. The spectacle of Israel trying to point suspicion on the US and vice versa is really embarrassing.

 

That is the Iran we all know and love

Hossein Amirabdollahian:

“It has not been proven to us that there was a connection between this and Israel,

 

The guy's name wasn't given, neither was his position or the branch of government he works for given or even hinted at. Nor was he speaking as an unnamed but still authorized spokesman.

That makes it off the record.

Which means that an Iranian official can brush it off as some low-ranking nobody speculating to a credulous tool about things he knew nothing about

 

Below is a picture of Iran's S-300 but I will also post a picture of a Russian one where the "flip radar" claimed by some to have been damaged or destroyed in the Israeli operation. Lets assume the satellite imagery does in fact verify the claimed damage, The same satellite analysis shows the S-300 battery (mounted on a truck) was right next to the S-300 and the S300 itself wasn't impacted. Can anyone really believe a long range missile (much less 3) hit its target without leaving any other marks, not even damage to the trucks? What kind of payload these "missiles" carry to make such a super limited impact? The damage is actually consistent with the toy-like quadropod drones Iran engaged. Maybe one of these drones got through before the others were shot down. But this is a sabotage operation from inside Iran like others Israel has engaged in. These operations are carried out by Iranian cells (mostly MEK types) that work and get paid by the Israelis.

 

Indeed.

Marzieh Ebrahimi didn't wear her hijab properly so this is what was done to her. She's not the only one either

 

I mean this stuff is easy

The phrase its about sending a message exist for this reason. The point was look we were capable of reaching and hitting this particular area you think it it cannot be reached.

Next time there will be more and destructive bombs. Your defense is pointless

 

I don't understand the relation between a despicable criminal act and any the discussion here, but Marzieh Ebrahimi was a victim of an acid attack and instrumental in raising awareness and enactment of tougher penalties for these crimes in Iran. The picture posted by @The Irish Rover is from an exhibit of her pictures in Iran.

https://www.brightvibes.com/the-face-of-courage-strength-and-beauty-marzieh-ebrahimi/
The face of courage, strength and beauty: acid attack survivor Marzieh Ebrahimi speaks out
Six years ago, Marzieh Ebrahimi was driving in Isfahan, Iran, when two men on a motorcycle approached her vehicle. One of them threw acid on her face and the pair sped away. They were never caught or identified. Today Marzieh is raising awareness about these terrible attacks and advocating for the ban of acid sales.

 

Whatever the "message" (more like a prank), I was pointing out the ridiculous nature of the claim that Israel used some long range missiles instead of the toy-like drones Iran had mentioned. And why, since this unclaimed operation took place from inside Iran, Iran's foreign minister gave the response he did.

Earlier we had a bombing targeting the PMU in Iraq being heralded as an Israeli operation by those who are and were clearly hoping for some meaningful attack by Israel. The Israelis had to come out and affirmatively deny being involved. That shifted suspicion on the US which then saw the US deny involvement. And all this has made all those who love to present an image of Israel as "mighty mouse" nervous and disappointed. And that has led to some of the most outlandish spin and claims I have seen on these subjects.

 

According to a Haaretz rwport Iran is in contact with the US for a new nuclear agreement.

Lets see how credible this turns out to be, but I definitely think it would be the right move by both Iran and the US.
Whatever would help to alleviate Irans economic and political isolation will be beneficial for the people of Iran.

The region is a tinderbox. I think the fact that a war nearly broke out between Israel-Iran has changed Washington's calculus.
If this turns out to be true, and if an agreement can even be reached.

Bidens foreign policy has been catastrophic across the board, and this is a relatively low hanging fruit, which might have some semblance of a chance to boost his election, which lets face is seriously threatened as things stand.

 

My view is captured in the saying:
"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on you and me; fool me thrice, shame on me alone."

 

Topic for another thread, but he finally got us out of Afghanistan. He has repaired relations around the world post Trump. Even on this issue, Iran and Israel seem to be standing down.

This take is bonkers.

 

I hear what you are saying, but I think it would be the right move nonetheless from a purely geopolitical standpoint.
I am not expecting this would open up trade between Iran-West, but I def believe Iran would gain economically regardless (more and easier trade with BRICS, perhaps even with our Persian Gulf neighbours)

 

Nah, he's been as atrocious as Trump in the Middle East region at least.

 

Iran is at the cusp of being in a position where everyone in the region, including the Israelis, will be begging for a deal with Iran. I hope Iran doesn't repeat its past mistake.

 

I wouldn’t expect any new agreement to take effect until AFTER the US election this November.

 

I dont know. They should def negotiatie imo. The region is a tinderbox that can blow up by any miscalculation.
Lets consider the fact that a regional war nearly broke out, because Iran and Israel dont have a clear understanding of each other and each other's respective red lines (well at least Israel does not)

 

Maybe not, but they can most certainly get the ball rolling with teeth grinding negotiations.

And honestly, Iran and US should sit down and negotiate other things especially the regional security architechture. Its way past due!

 

If Trump wins, it will all be completely pointless.

 

I doubt that a treat that Trump publicly opposes could be ratified by the Senate, at least before the election. How possible is it that the two sides could come to an agreement in the next 3-4 months?

Who knows what the Republican Party will be like in January if Trump loses.